When March arrives, most basketball fans attention turns to a tournament that involves a bunch of college teams, but the NBA is in its stretch run, and the NBA MVP is still not set in stone. It’s been well over a month since my last rankings, and plenty has changed, while plenty has stayed the same.
Giannis has really taken his game to the next level this year and has helped Milwaukee establish the best record in the NBA (56-19), including 25 wins on the road and only 6 losses at home! The Bucks are the NBA’s best team, record-wise at least, and should have home court all the way through the playoffs if they advance. The Raptors and Sixers round out the top-3 in the East, while seeds 6-8 are separated by 1½ games!
In the West, the Warriors (51-23) and Nuggets (50-23) are virtually-tied atop the conference, the Rockets (47-27) are 14-4 since the All-Star break and have moved into the top four, and seeds 5-8 are separated by 2 games! All of these teams have one thing in common … they all have at least one player on this list (not a spoiler) and they all are in the top five (SPOILER!).
Prev: All-Star | Jan 24 | Jan 9
Note: MVP rankings will come out every 3-4 weeks until the season ends.
Latest MVP Rankings
Stats Through: Mar 27, 2019
HONORABLE MENTION
LeBron James, F
Los Angeles Lakers, 33-42 (11th in West)
Prev: 8 ↓
| PTS | 3PT | REB | AST | PER |
| 27.4 | 2.0 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 25.84 |
| OFF RTG | DEF RTG | TS % | USG % | Clth USG |
| 108.7 | 106.9 | 58.7% | 30.9% | 38.7% |
Case for Lebron: If you look at LeBron’s numbers, especially after the All-Star Break, you would be shocked he is not in the top 10! He’s still averaging 27-8-8 for the year, including eight triple doubles. In the 54 games LeBron has played, the Lakers are 27-27. While that isn’t great, this Lakers team has been destroyed with injuries, so close to .500 is a win in my book. LeBron’s Clutch Usage rate goes up when the game is on the line, so the ball clearly still goes through LeBron’s hands. The Lakers have also gone 6-14 without LeBron, causing them to free-fall in the West standings.
Case against LeBron: The case against LeBron starts with the Lakers record. The Lakers are current 33-42 (5-11 since the All-Star break) and are going to miss the playoffs for the sixth straight season. LeBron has also missed 21 games, which in itself is rare, but it no doubt cost him a good portion of the season. LeBron’s offensive rating has dipped this season, and his late-game free-throw shooting went from bad to really bad in the blink of an eye. The numbers are truly incredible, but the lack of wins in addition to the lack of games played means no MVP for LeBron.
Since All-Star Break
Record: 5-10, 3 DNP (0-3)
Stats: 28.9 pts, 9.8 ast, 8.3 reb, 1.3 stl, 36.2 min
Shooting: 164-329 FG (49.8%), 26-92 3PT (28%), 80-126 FT (63.5%)
10
Anthony Davis, C
New Orleans Pelicans, 31-45 (12th in West)
Prev: Honorable Mention ↑
| PTS | REB | BLK | STL | PER |
| 25.9 | 12.0 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 30.43 |
| OFF RTG | DEF RTG | TS % | USG % | Clth USG |
| 113.1 | 109.7 | 59.7% | 28.7% | 34.0% |
Case for Davis: When Anthony Davis plays basketball, there is no doubt he is one of the best players in the game. Unfortunately for us all, the situation between Davis and the Pelicans has gotten to the point where they are purposefully benching him in order to keep him healthy for the summer … to trade him. His averages since the All-Star break are not truly MVP worthy, unless you look at his Per-36, which are truly incredible (more below). AD would be near the top if the Pelicans were trying.
Case against Davis: In order to win the MVP, you have to do many things, but one of them is actually playing. AD is only playing 21 minutes per game since the AS break, and it’s kind of his fault. His trade demand halted what was an MVP-like campaign. Not to mention that the Pelicans are 5-11 since the AS break, and 31-44 overall. In the games Davis has played, the Pelicans are still under .500, so it’s not like he was carrying the team to the postseason before the trade demand.
Since All-Star Break
Games Played: 11 (3-8), 2 DNP (2-3)
Stats: 16.9 pts, 8.4 reb, 2.6 apg, 1.4 spg, 1.9 blk, 21.1 mpg
Shooting: 79-138 FG (57%), 7-18 3PT (39%), 21-34 FT (62%)
Per 36: 28.8 pts, 14.3 reb, 4.5 ast, 2.3 stl, 3.3 blk
9
Damian Lillard
Portland Trailblazers, 47-27 (3rd in West)
Prev: Not Ranked
| PTS | 3PT | REB | AST | PER |
| 26.4 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 24.35 |
| OFF RTG | DEF RTG | TS % | USG % | Clth USG |
| 115.6 | 108.0 | 59.5 | 28.2 | 34.7 |
Case for Dame: Damian Lillard makes his debut on this list at number 9. Dame dollar has been balling all season long and no one has really talked about him. The Blazers are a top-3 team in the West at 47-27, and Dame is a large reason why. He’s only missed one game all season long, and has guided the Blazers to 13-4 record since the AS break. Lillard has taken his game to a near-MVP level, especially in crunch time. Dame’s usage rate jumps from 28.1% to 34.7% (+6.6%), which is no surprise to anyone who has seen Lillard’s late-game heroics.
Case against Dame: As good as Dame has been all season long, the Blazers are the least impressive team among these MVP candidates. While this is no fault of his own, but in the games that Dame’s played, his winning percentage is in the low-middle of the pack (63%). While that is solid and can get you to the post season it’s not good enough to compete with the top dogs. Lillard is a bit inefficient as well, shooting 43% from the field and sporting a PER of only 24.35. If Lillard was a little more efficient, he would top a top candidate for MVP. #Goals
Since All-Star Break
Games Played: 17 (13-4), 0 DNP
Stats: 25.6 pts, 4.9 reb, 8.3 ast, 1.1 stl, 36.4 min, +10.4 +/-
Shooting: 139-307 FG (45.3%), 54-154 3PT (37.2%), 92-100 FT (92%)
8
Joel Embiid
Philadelphia 76ers, 47-27 (3rd in East)
Prev: 6 ↓
| PTS | REB | APG | BLK | PER |
| 27.3 | 13.7 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 25.76 |
| OFF RTG | DEF RTG | TS % | USG % | Clth USG |
| 111.1 | 103.4 | 59.4 | 32.1 | 32.8 |
Case for The Process: Joel “The Process” Embiid has been unbelievable this year. Unfortunately for us all, he hurt himself recently and had to miss some time, but he’s back to his old self … which means good things for the Sixers. Embiid missed 8 straight games after the AS break, and the Sixers went 5-3 in his absence. Since he’s returned, the Sixers are 5-2 with Embiid, and 10-6 overall (Embiid missed one game, resulting in a loss). There is no question that Embiid on the court has equaled wins this season. His per game stats are something out of young Shaq’s book. Since the AS break, Embiid has been on a tear (when he plays), averaging almost 28 and 15, while getting over one block and one steal. If he can ever put together a full 82 game season … my goodness.
Case against The Process: He’s only played 61 of 74 games for the Sixers, and unlike some of his counterparts with similar games played, the Sixers winning percent is solid (67%) but not near the top. I know this may seem nitpicky at times, but it’s the MVP, you’re forced to nitpick. Embiid’s numbers are impressive, but his field goal percentage is a little too low for man his size. If Embiid was around the rim a bit more, I think he could average 30+ a game, and maybe win more games for the Sixers. The Sixers are locked into a playoff position, but they are still 8½ games out of the top spot in the East, and that is a little too great of a gap for an MVP.
Since All-Star Break
Games Played: 7 (5-2), 9 DNP (5-4)
Stats: 27.9 pts, 15.3 reb, 3.1 ast, 1.3 stl, 1.4 blk, 34.3 min
Shooting: 64-130 FG (49.2%), 9-30 3PT (30%), 58-71 FT (81.7%)
7
Kawhi Leonard
Toronto Raptors, 52-23 (2nd in East)
Prev: 7
| PTS | REB | APG | STL | PER |
| 27.0 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 26.29 |
| OFF RTG | DEF RTG | TS % | USG % | Clth USG |
| 114.4 | 107.1 | 60.9 | 29.9 | 39.4 |
Case for Kawhi: In a running theme this year, when Kawhi plays, he is one of the best players in the NBA, by far. It’s a welcomed sight, considering his only played 8 games or so last year. In the 55 games that Kawhi has played this year, the Raps are 37-18 (67%) and Kawhi’s numbers are crazy good, 27 points a game, almost two steals and two threes a game, while maintaining his efficient shooting and excellent defense. The Raptors are a very good team, so Kawhi’s usage rate is shade under the top players (29.9%) but when the game is close, Kawhi’s usage rate jumps to 39.4, meaning the ball is in his hands when the game in on the line. The Raptors have rested Kawhi at times even when he’s healthy, just to make sure he is ready to go come playoff time. Since the All-Star break, Kawhi has maintained the 27 ppg average, but his three-point shooting has improved (41.3%), and his plus/minus when he was on the court was +124 in 12 games. I know plus/minus doesn’t tell the whole story, but that is one hell of a number.
Case against Kawhi: The Claw has only played 73% of the Raptors games this year, and most of them were due to “Load Management”, whatever the hell that is. As previously mentioned, the Raps are 37-18 (67.3%) with Kawhi, but they are even better without him. In the 20 games Kawhi has missed, the Raps are 15-5 (75%), though in the four games Kawhi has missed since the All-Star break, the Raptors are only 2-2. Kawhi’s numbers are sick, they truly are, however he has just missed too many games … and his team has succeeded too much in his absence. The Raptors (and Kawhi) may have sacrificed a potential MVP for potential post-season success.
Since All-Star Break
Games Played: 12 (7-5), 4 DNP (2-2)
Stats: 27.1 pts, 6.5 reb, 3.3 ast, 1.9 stl, 32.6 min, +10 +/-
Shooting: 119-232 FG (51.3%), 26-63 3PT (41.3%), 61-73 FT (83.6%)
6
Kevin Durant
Golden State Warriors, 51-23 (1st in West)
Prev: 5 ↓
| PTS | 3PT | REB | APG | PER |
| 26.8 | 1.8 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 24.42 |
| OFF RTG | DEF RTG | TS % | USG % | Clth USG% |
| 117.7 | 107.5 | 62.7 | 28.8 | 34.2 |
Case for KD: KD is a perennial-MVP candidate. Every year, no matter what team he is on, just make sure he is in your top-10. Durant has been the model of consistency for the Warriors all season long. He’s played in 71 of the 74 games so far, and the Warriors have a 69% (nice) winning percentage in those games. KD has quietly averaged almost 27-6-6, while shooting 52-35-88. In any other year, he would be the MVP, hands down … but this in one of the best MVP races we’ve seen in a while. The Warriors have struggled a bit since the AS break, but it’s no fault of Durant, who’s averaged 24-5-5 with a steal and a block. The thing that makes KD truly amazing is his efficiency. While his PER is only 24.42, it’s still well above league average, and his True Shooting is 62.7%, which is amazing considering the amount of contested-perimeter shots he takes. KD is the best player (arguably) on the best team in the West (maybe the NBA), and that usually is enough.
Case against KD: There isn’t much to say in a negative light for Durant. He is T-2ndin wins with 49 (among MVP candidates) and is third in winning percentage (69%). The Warriors have struggled a bit since the AS break, winning only 57% of the games KD played in (8-6), but the issue only real issue for Durant is that he plays on the Warriors, alongside another MVP candidate … who is also on this list. If KD was anywhere else, he might be number one … every year.
Since All-Star Break
Games Played: 14 (8-6), 3 DNP (2-1)
Stats: 23.7 pts, 4.8 reb, 5.0 ast, 1.1 blk, 34.5 min, +3.1 +/-
Shooting: 120-231 FG (51.9%), 22-76 3PT (28.9%), 70-83 FT (84.3%)
5
Paul George
Oklahoma City Thunder, 44-31 (7th in West)
Prev: 3 ↓
| PTS | 3PT | REB | APG | PER |
| 28.2 | 3.8 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 23.68 |
| OFF RTG | DEF RTG | TS % | USG % | Clth USG |
| 111.1 | 103.0 | 58.6 | 28.6 | 33.3 |
Case for PG: After a sizzling February (35.0 ppg), PG13 has cooled off a bit, but he is still having an amazing season, and clearly the best of his career. We are experiencing peak Paul George right now, and it’s a pleasure to watch. PG is 2nd in the NBA in scoring at 28.2 ppg, making 3.8 threes per game, and playing close to 37 minutes a game. PG has played in 71 of the 75 games this year for OKC, and they are 42-29 in the games he’s played. Though PG has struggled a bit shooting the ball lately, he is still shooting 44-39-84 for the year, and making almost four 3-pointers a game. Combine his offense with his defense (103 DefRtg, 2.2 steals), he has the making of an MVP candidate.
Case against PG: The Thunder have fallen in the standings in the West, and now sit in the 7th seed. Since the All-Star break, the Thunder are 7-11 overall, and 6-9 in the games PG has played in. PG’s scoring has dipped slightly since the AS break (26.6 ppg), but his shooting percentages have really plummeted (39-33-84). The Western Conference is deep and has plenty of teams that can take you out at any time. There isn’t that much time left in the year, but PG still has time to get his shooting back up and get some more wins for the Thunder.
Since All-Star Break
Games Played: 15 (6-9), 3 DNP (1-2)
Stats: 26.6 pts, 8.7 reb, 4.1 ast, 1.7 stl, 38.3 min, -1.0 +/-
Shooting: 124-315 FG (39.4%), 52-159 3PT (32.7%), 99-118 FT (83.9%)
4
Nikola Jokic
Denver Nuggets, 50-23 (1st in West)
Prev: 9 ↑
| PTS | 3PT | REB | APG | PER |
| 20.3 | 1.1 | 10.8 | 7.5 | 26.68 |
| OFF RTG | DEF RTG | TS % | USG % | Clth USG |
| 113.3 | 106.9 | 58.8 | 27.0 | 30.0 |
Case for Jokic: This is probably the candidate that no one talks about the most, that actually has the best chance of landing in a top-three spot. Jokic is the Nuggets 7-foot point-center, that has all the skills needed to be one of the best players in the NBA. Jokic is averaging a near triple-double at 20-11-8 (which is not that impressive anymore thanks to Westbrook), and is shooting a very impressive 51-32-83 from the field. The Nuggets are currently 50-23 and within ½ games of the #1 seed in the West. Jokic has only missed one game (a win) and is T-2nd among MVP candidates in season wins. Jokic has helped the Nuggets keep pace with the Warriors, which is quite an accomplishment. The Nuggets do have point guards, so the Jokic’s usage rate is only 27%, but it jumps up to 30% in the clutch. Jokic has been instrumental in the Nuggets rise to the top of the west this year.
Case against Jokic: While Jokic is very good at just about everything, he isn’t great at one thing. He doesn’t average much over 20 points, if that, and he turns it over about 3 times a game. Despite the Nuggets winning over 50 games, Jokic’s plus/minus is only +4.1, and his NetRtg is +6.4, which is in the lower half of all MVP candidates. Jokic’s numbers have slipped slightly since the AS break, but there isn’t much out there against Jokic. He’s very good at basketball, and with just a handful of games left in the season, his MVP finish will be determined by where the Nuggets finish.
Since All-Star Break
Games Played: 16 (11-5), 0 DNP
Stats: 19.8 pts, 11.5 reb, 6.6 ast, 1.0 stl, 31.3 min, +2.1 +/-
Shooting: 122-242 FG (50.4%), 18-49 3PT (36.7%), 55-72 FT (76.4%)
3
Stephen Curry
Golden State Warriors, 51-23 (1st in West)
Prev: 4 ↑
| PTS | 3PT | REB | APG | PER |
| 27.8 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 24.42 |
| OFF RTG | DEF RTG | TS % | USG % | Clth USG |
| 118.5 | 106.4 | 63.7 | 29.3 | 33.9 |
Case for Steph: Ever since he has returned from his injury, Steph Curry has been on fire, and so have the Warriors. Curry has played in 62 of the 74 games for the Warriors, and in the 12 games he’s missed, the Warriors are a pedestrian 5-7. In the games that Curry does play, the Warriors are 46-16, which is the 2nd best winning percentage (74.2%) among the MVP candidates, and T-1st for fewest losses. Curry has shown how vital he is to the Warriors success and is having a season like his previous MVP seasons. Despite missing 12 games, Curry is only 22 3-pointers behind James Harden for most in the NBA, and he’s also taken 201 fewer threes (43.1%). Curry’s deep-range accuracy is incredible and makes him almost un-guardable. Curry is making the same amount of 3-pointers per game as he did in 2015/16 (5.1/game), where he was the unanimous MVP, and he’s averaging more points this year (27.8 ppg, 3rd in the NBA) than he has in the previous two seasons. Curry might be on the best/most-top-heavy team in the league, but he’s the reason they are “The Warriors”.
Case against Steph:The most obvious case for Curry not winning the MVP is the amount of games he’s missed. He’s played in 83.8% of the Warriors games, which among the rest of the candidates, is barely in the top 10 (same percentage of games played as Kyrie). The second most obvious reason is that he plays on the Warriors, and MVP-candidate Kevin Durant (and All-NBA SG Klay Thompson) are on his team. Curry’s team is loaded, but surprisingly, the Warriors didn’t do well in his absence. If Curry had played in more games, and the Warriors were able to maintain that pace, the Warriors would be close to 60 wins, and Curry might be the MVP. BUT … he did miss those games. His season should still be rewarded with a 3rd place finish.
Since All-Star Break
Games Played: 16 (10-6), 1 DNP (0-1)
Stats: 25.4 pts, 6.2 reb, 5.4 ast, 1.7 stl, 34.4 min, +6.5 +/-
Shooting: 137-330 FG (41.5%), 83-209 3PT (39.7%), 50-57 FT (87.7%)
2
James Harden
Houston Rockets, 47-28 (4th in West)
Prev: 2
| PTS | 3PT | REB | APG | PER |
| 36.2 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 30.16 |
| OFF RTG | DEF RTG | TS % | USG % | Clth USG |
| 114.9 | 110.6 | 61.0 | 39.5 | 48.8 |
Case for Harden: What can I write that hasn’t been written, said, or tweeted about James Harden. He has been spectacular for the Rockets all season long, single-handedly saving their season, and now the Rockets find themselves with home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, for now. Before James Harden started his streak of scoring 30+ points, the Rockets were 11-13, 13th in the West Conference. For the next 34 games, Harden scored 30 points or more in every single game, averaging 41-7-7 in 38 minutes per game, and the Rockets went 22-12. When Harden’s streak ended, the Rockets found themselves at 33-24, 5th in the West. The Rockets are currently 4th in the West and are within striking distance of the top seeds. Harden’s mid-season heroics were amazing, but his stats are even more impressive. Harden is averaging a league-high 36.17 points per game, and only two players have ever averaged more … Wilt and MJ. Harden currently has 2,568 points, which is #21 on the all-time list, and he’s only 264 behind Kobe’s 2005/06 season (where the Mamba averaged 35.6 ppg). Harden needs to average 37.7 (38 just to be safe) to pass Kobe, so it will be interesting to see where he, and the Rockets end up. Harden has done everything in his power to win MVP this year, and to be honest, he deserves it.
Case against Harden: The only real case for Harden is that the Rockets are winning enough games. In the 71 games Harden has played, the Rockets winning percentage is 63.4%, which is middle of the road when it comes to the rest of the field of candidates. While Harden did save the Rockets season, his shooting has fallen slightly from previous seasons, and his playmaking dipped a bit as well. Regardless, James Harden would be the MVP if it wasn’t for our next candidate.
Since All-Star Break
Games Played: 17 (13-4), 1 DNP (1-0)
Stats: 34.8 pts, 5.8 reb, 6.8 ast, 2.1 stl, 36.6 min, +5.2 +/-
Shooting: 189-443 FG (42.7%), 67-208 3PT (32.2%), 147-163 FT (90.2%)
1
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Milwaukee Bucks, 56-19 (1st in East)
Prev: 1
| PTS | REB | APG | BLK | PER |
| 27.3 | 12.6 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 30.80 |
| Off Rtg | DEF RTG | TS % | USG % | Clth USG |
| 113.4 | 100.5 | 64.2 | 30.9 | 29.6 |
Case for Giannis: Let’s flash back to August 2017: The recently retired Kobe Bryant issued a set of “challenges” to some NBA players for the upcoming 2017/18 season. Kobe issued challenges to Isaiah Thomas and DeMar DeRozan, and then a certain NBA player tweeted to the Black Mamba, demanding a challenge from the all-time great. Kobe responded with three letters, “MVP”.
Ever since that moment, winning MVP has been a goal for Giannis. Giannis did not win the MVP in 2017/18 (James Harden did), but Giannis did finish 6th in MVP voting. Flash forward back to today, and Giannis is about to accomplish that goal. Giannis has the Bucks sitting pretty in the East, and with a record of 56-19, the Bucks own home-court throughout the postseason (if they are that lucky). On the year, Giannis is averaging 27-13-6, while shooting 58% from the field. In the 75 games that he’s played, the Bucks are 52-16 (4-3 w/o Giannis), and what’s most impressive is that Giannis is only playing 32 minutes per game because the Bucks are blowing teams out. Giannis’ per 36 numbers are even more impressive: 30-14-7, with over a steal and a block a game. Giannis is also 5th in the NBA in rebounds per game, 13th in blocks per game, 4th in Defensive Rating, and 1st in Net Rating. As good as some of the other candidates have been, Giannis has been better.
Case against Giannis:
None. He’s the MVP.
Since All-Star Break
Games Played: 15 (11-4), 3 DNP (1-2)
Stats: 27.8 pts, 12.2 reb, 6.1 ast, 1.5 blk, 32.0 min, +7.5 +/-
Shooting: 148-255 FG (58.0%), 15-52 3PT (28.8%), 106-141 FT (75.2%)
Agree? Disagree? Chime in below or on Twitter!
Thank you for reading the 4th edition of the 2019 MVP rankings. Make sure to check back in three weeks for the latest rankings!
-Brandon
Advanced Stats
Player Efficiency Rating (PER): A measure of per-minute production standardized such that the league average is 15. (ESPN Stats)
Offensive Rating (OffRtg): Measures a team’s points scored per 100 possessions. On a player level this statistic is team points scored per 100 possessions while he is on court. (NBA Stats)
Defensive Rating (DefRtg): The number of points allowed per 100 possessions by a team. For a player, it is the number of points per 100 possessions that the team allows while that individual player is on the court. (NBA Stats)
True Shooting % (TS%): A measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account 2-point field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws. (NBA Stats)
Usage%: An estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor. (NBA Stats)
Clutch (Clth) Usage %: An estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor in the last 5 minutes, point diff = 5 pts or less. (NBA Stats)
Clutch: Last 5 minutes, point diff = 5 pts or less. (NBA Stats)
Brandon Rosenthal is a writer, podcast host/producer, and an avid basketball fan since the early 1990s. He has been covering the NBA since 2016 for the30minutelunchbreak.com. You can view all of his posts and articles, and follow him on Twitter.
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